FOX Sports Betting Analyst
As has been the case much of this season, the Swifties are having an impact on Travis Kelce proposition bets. But it’s not just Kelce getting the attention of Taylor Swift fans.
Said Johnny Avello, director of operations for DraftKings Sportsbook: “We’ve been seeing continuous action weekly not only on Kelce props, but props on the entire Chiefs team.”
Evidence of that is quite clear in DraftKings’ betting data on AFC Championship Game odds. As Sunday’s 3 p.m. ET kickoff nears, Avello helps break down the Swifties Effect.
Counting on Kelce
Scoring props are among the most popular in NFL betting markets, specifically player to score the first touchdown, player to score anytime touchdown and player to score two or more touchdowns. At DraftKings Sportsbook, among all the players on the four teams involved in Sunday’s conference championship games, Kelce is No. 2 in ticket count on all three of those props.
The only player taking more tickets in each is Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson – who touches the ball on every offensive snap and has a propensity to run and score. Kelce does not touch the ball on every snap, yet he is right behind Jackson on first TD, anytime TD and two or more TD props.
Swift, Kelce’s girlfriend, has been a regular at games over the course of the season and will undoubtedly be at Sunday’s game between the Chiefs and Ravens in Baltimore. So is the run on Kelce props yet again the Swifties Effect in action?
“I’d like to think so,” Avello said. “She keeps coming to the playoff games, and we continue to see the action on those props rise.”
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Apparently, the Swifties Effect is having a domino effect, as well, particularly in the market of player to score two or more TDs.
“Three of the top five are Chiefs, out of all the players available. That’s pretty outstanding,” Avello said.
As noted above, Kelce is No. 2 in ticket count for player to score two or more touchdowns, behind Jackson. At No. 3 is San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, but he’s followed by two more Chiefs: running back Isiah Pacheco and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
On the anytime TD prop, Kelce and Pacheco are Nos. 2 and 3 in ticket count, respectively, behind Jackson. And on the first TD prop, again, Kelce is No. 2 and Pacheco No. 3.
“Pacheco is now one of the top bets for anytime and first TD scorers,” Avello said. “We get more play on touchdown passes by Mahomes, too.”
Which makes sense. If Kelce is going to score touchdowns, he needs Mahomes to chuck the ball to him. Last week’s 27-24 divisional-round win at Buffalo was the perfect example. After a seven-game scoring drought, Mahomes hit Kelce with two touchdown passes.
“You put them in these playoffs, and of course, Kelce is gonna continue to get targeted a lot,” Avello said. “It’s a crucial situation, so Kelce will continue to see action.”
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Beyond the betting window, Avello continues to see the impact of Swift on Kansas City Chiefs games. Just look at the viewership numbers. And he’s even seeing it within the Avello family.
“I have evidence today that the Taylor Swift effect is happening. My niece, who doesn’t watch football, told me she will be watching the Chiefs this weekend. So I’ve got first-hand information,” Avello said.
She might even have a Travis Kelce prop bet in hand.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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