Sat. Feb 24th, 2024

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

For those new to this space, if you are looking for some wagers to get in on the NFL action, I have you covered. Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the games weekly.

Last week, we finished 0-2, but we’re still up on the season. 

Let’s gain some momentum going into Super Bowl LVIII.

Here are my best bets for the conference title games.

(All times ET Sunday)

Last Week: 0-2 (Season: 35-31-3)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (3 p.m., CBS)

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense might find the going a bit tougher this week than it did against the injured shell of a Bills defense last week. 

Coverage will be tighter, the pass rush will be stronger, and we might see a lot of designed pass plays turn into scrambles, which will reduce that pass yardage total.

If Baltimore gets a big lead, that could change things. But I think the Kansas City defense will keep the Chiefs in the game, and we’ll see a bit of a complementary game plan, where K.C. controls the ball in an effort to keep Lamar Jackson and the Ravens off the field. 

Correlated plays would include Mahomes rushing yards Over and the game total Under. 

PICK: Patrick Mahomes Under 243.5 passing yards 

https://statics.foxsports.com/static/orion/player-embed.html?id=fmc-6ldzbgexfececdsm&image=https://static-media.fox.com/fmc/prod/sports/22c5fb22-ab31-4a2d-bb45-e1d62a7ec3b4/wdg7qvv3rop8enty.jpg&props=eyJwYWdlX25hbWUiOiJmc2NvbTpzdG9yaWVzOm5mbDoyMDI0IE5GTCBjb25mZXJlbmNlIHRpdGxlIG9kZHMsIHByZWRpY3Rpb25zLCBiZXN0IGJldHMgYnkgQ2hyaXMgJ1RoZSBCZWFyJyBGYWxsaWNhIiwicGFnZV9jb250ZW50X2Rpc3RyaWJ1dG9yIjoiYW1wIiwicGFnZV90eXBlIjoic3RvcmllczphcnRpY2xlcyJ9
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Lions @ 49ers (6:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

The thing I’m most confident about in this game is Detroit scoring points against a San Francisco defense that is extremely vulnerable in the secondary. 

Plus, there are many avenues to get here. If the Lions defense cannot slow down the 49ers offense, then we could be in store for a 35-28 type game, as Detroit will be chasing points.

Or, the Lions could just get up in the game against the Niners. We might not have Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and San Francisco might not be able to keep pace.

Either way, in good weather conditions against a struggling unit, Detroit should be good enough for 21 points here. 

PICK: Lions team total Over 20.5 points scored

As mentioned above, there’s a good chance this is a high-scoring game, given the state of the two defenses. 

Detroit’s pass defense is in worse shape than San Francisco’s. In the playoffs alone, the Lions allowed 367 yards to Matthew Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield. 

https://statics.foxsports.com/static/orion/player-embed.html?id=fmc-t7dd8kevb4iaut3z&image=https://static-media.fox.com/fmc/prod/sports/42873c0a-6332-4697-b97b-8e4cac21d380/uklp825ffgjqp5bp.png&props=eyJwYWdlX25hbWUiOiJmc2NvbTpzdG9yaWVzOm5mbDoyMDI0IE5GTCBjb25mZXJlbmNlIHRpdGxlIG9kZHMsIHByZWRpY3Rpb25zLCBiZXN0IGJldHMgYnkgQ2hyaXMgJ1RoZSBCZWFyJyBGYWxsaWNhIiwicGFnZV9jb250ZW50X2Rpc3RyaWJ1dG9yIjoiYW1wIiwicGFnZV90eXBlIjoic3RvcmllczphcnRpY2xlcyJ9
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Even if Samuel can’t play, the Niners have enough weapons to put up big yardage through the air, which probably will include Brock Purdy throwing the ball to Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield. 

The weather should be fine and maybe, just maybe, the Niners surviving the scare and Purdy having a great final drive last week against the Packers will put him in line for a huge game this week. 

PICK: Brock Purdy Over 272.5 passing yards 

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica. 

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